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2024 US Presidential Election

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    2024 US Presidential Election

    Yep, still a bit early. We're not even past the 2022 midterms yet, which a few months ago was sizing up to be a major loss for the Democrats.

    2022 is looking quite different now that the Supreme Court removed Federal protection for abortion, several gun massacres, and Congressional hearings looking into the January 6th raid on the Capitol building, per the losing President's direction, to stop the certification of the Presidential election. Things are looking rosier for the Democrats for November.

    Ah, but today both Trump AND Pence are speaking at separate political events in Washington, DC.

    Right NOW, at the end of July 2022 I can see three likely GOP candidates: Trump, Pence, and Gov. DeSantis.

    If Trump chooses to NOT run, Gov. DeSantis AND Pence will both likely run. Two years is a long time, and Trump is getting on in years, and his health isn't all that great (there's also the possibility of a further cognitive decline between now and next year). If Trump runs, it's pretty cloudy as to whether anyone will dare to run against him. But Trump's base has been gradually dwindling as it dawns on his supporters, one by one, that Trump is a lousy candidate (not to mention being a lousy person). Depending on the landscape in a year, DeSantis may run whether or not Trump is in the race.

    OK, how about a list of potential Republicans?

    Former President Donald Trump, 76
    Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney, 55
    Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 51
    Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 43
    Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, 50
    Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, 42
    Former Vice President and former Indiana Governor Mike Pence, 63

    Of these seven, only two are NOT despised by liberals; Liz Cheney and Mike Pence. Pence is certainly not well-liked by the Left, and Cheney is barely tolerated (and only because she is adamantly anti-Trump)

    On the Democratic Party side, it's a given that President Biden is the front runner. IF HE RUNS; and last year he DID say he would. But he's old as well, and not as sharp as he used to be. His health isn't bad for a guy his age, but at that age, things can take a turn for the worse rapidly. HOWEVER, there are those (specifically, The Hill, a slightly Left-of-Center political publication) that think the Democrats WON'T nominate Biden for a second term.


    If Biden DOESN'T run (or cannot run), obviously Kamala Harris gets the incumbent advantage (and no, she doesn't get to "pick" the next President).

    There's some other high profile potential candidates, like California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker.


    The Hill, in fact, calls 2024 a nightmare waiting to happen. They're thinking that the GOP will also not nominate Trump, which could split the party. Imagine it, Trump calling the GOP nomination process "rigged", and starting his own "MAGA Party". Now imagine that the 2024 Presidential election becomes a three-way race between Biden, DeSantis, and Trump, and none of them manages an Electoral College majority: What happens THEN? It goes to the House of Representatives; THEY get to choose, something they haven't done for two hundred years.

    So which Democrats are "possibles"?

    President Joe Biden, 79
    Stacey Abrams, 48
    Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, 40
    Vice President Kamala Harris, 57
    Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, 62
    California Governor Gavin Newsom, 54
    New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 32
    Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, 57
    Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 80
    Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, 73

    I'm a Sanders fan (well, of his political views), but he'd be the oldest candidate in the race. AOC is universally hated by the Trumpers (and the rest of the Republicans don't like her much either), but in spite of how they try to portray her, she's probably the smartest mind in the bunch. Well, Buttigieg and Sanders are brilliant as well.

    What do you think?

    #2
    With the general crap state of our nation since Biden came in with the Afghanistan debacle, Border Crisis, Inflation, Gas Prices, Authoritarian Mask Mandates, Supply Chain mess, Crime Surging, and everything else that has followed, any Republican will probably win. People are not happy, and he is polling terrible numbers across the board, not to mention is barely cognizant, even with his monitors and notes.

    The left will need some charismatic wonder like Gavin or Michelle Obama. Otherwise based on the policies and current state pretty much everything, there is NO way Biden or Kamala can win. They need a superstar or they're doomed.

    It's this bad...
    Click image for larger version  Name:	image.png Views:	1 Size:	486.4 KB ID:	22255
    Last edited by Somis Sound; 07-26-2022, 02:43 PM.

    Comment


      #3
      Ah. Yes. Well . . . Saying that Biden is responsible for the "Afghanistan debacle, Border Crisis, Inflation, Gas Prices, Authoritarian Mask Mandates, Supply Chain mess, Crime Surging, and everything else" is throwing quite a bit of manure all at once.

      The "Afghanistan Debacle"? I assume you mean how the US pulled out and left the country to fend for itself? President Biden was following through on Donald Trump's mistaken decision to withdraw the remaining U.S. forces from Afghanistan. It was Trump that pledged the US to that timeline.

      The "Border Crisis"? I'm surprised you're going with this outdated notion that there is some sort of "Border Crisis". There was never a "crisis" at the border until Trump and the GOP manufactured this nonexistent "crisis". We ALL know that the GOP’s hyped-up “border crisis” was simply the latest stage in a long-term process of exaggerating the impact of unauthorized immigration. Undocumented immigrants aren’t actually a problem, but the Republican Party has framed them , or "murderers and rapists and drug dealers", in order to motivate and mobilize the Republican base, appealing to their baser instincts of fearfulness, intolerance, white supremacy, racism, bigotry, and shifting the blame of all our problems to hordes of brown bogeymen.

      Really? "Authoritarian Mask Mandates"? We've had a goddamned pandemic raging for over two years now, and it continues to be ongoing because SOME folks couldn't jive with some simple precautionary steps. Biden wasn't even President when we started having pandemic issues. Trump was.

      "Supply Chain mess"? That's a very complex subject, and a pandemic didn't help matters. Biden wasn't even President when we started having supply chain issues. Trump was.

      But Mask mandates came from the DHS and the CDC. And most Republican governors ignored the calls for caution. Yeah, this was a states thing, and Trump was President for almost the entire first year of the pandemic. That was when we had the most mask mandates and mandatory shutdowns of non-essential businesses. Blame THAT bozo. He was the Prez, and he MOCKED social distancing, and masking up. But you're blaming Biden for that?

      "Crime Surging"? Crime was surging the same as always during the Trump presidency, at least until a raging pandemic forced shut downs of all sorts of businesses.

      And "everything else"? Um, yeah, whatever. You gonna blame gas prices on Biden too?

      Biden is not "barely cognizant", but he is 79 years old. While he's pretty healthy for a man of his age, he's merely a little slower than he used to be. At least he's not occasionally incoherent like Trump gets. But a brick with turd toppings would have been better than another four years of Trump. The presidency takes a toll on the people that service. It's possibly the MOST stressful job in the world. It's way too much stress for Biden, or Trump, or Sanders.

      Here's what I'm hoping for: Biden resigns in February 2023, leaving Harris as President. As she'd be serving out less than half of the Presidential term, she could run as an incumbent in 2024 (with a January 2025 inauguration), then re-elected in 2028 (with a 2029 inauguration). She could serve, legally, for almost ten years.



      Last edited by pianozach; 07-27-2022, 07:14 AM.

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by pianozach View Post

        ....
        none of them manages an Electoral College majority: What happens THEN? It goes to the House of Representatives; THEY get to choose, something they haven't done for two hundred years.
        Hi, here's a dumb question from your upstairs neighbours -
        Would that be the pre-election membership of the House or with the newly elected members?

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Khatrooper View Post

          Hi, here's a dumb question from your upstairs neighbours -
          Would that be the pre-election membership of the House or with the newly elected members?
          It would be the pre-election membership of the House.

          It would still be November or December when they'd have to choose, and the new members aren't sworn in until the first week in January.

          I remember having this discussion back in 2020, when Trump had called the whole election "rigged", and some of us speculated as to what would happen if the Electoral College vote was actually tied.

          If the House couldn't decide on a new President by inauguration day (also the first week of January), then the President's term expires (as does the term of the Vice President), and there is a vacancy in the office. When a President dies, resigns, or otherwise has to vacate the office, there is a chain of command. First in line is the Vice President, but if there is no Vice President, then the next in line is the Speaker of the House, which, in this case, would have been Rep. Nancy Pelosi. She'd then be sworn in, and could APPOINT a Vice President.

          And this is even funnier: Theoretically she could then choose to resign, and whoever she appointed as VP would then become President. There is no limit as to who she could appoint, as long as they are of sound mind, and at least 35 years old.

          Back in the 70s, Vice President Spiro Agnew was embroiled in a kick-back scandal, and resigned in disgrace. Nixon appointed Gerald Ford to be VP. When Nixon resigned in disgrace, Ford became the first President to hold the office that had not been ELECTED as either President or Vice President.

          Comment


            #6
            I would like to see North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper run.

            “Well ain’t life grand when you finally hit it?”-David Lee Roth

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Frumious B View Post
              I would like to see North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper run.
              Hmmm. Well, okay, a low-key, low-profile, but highly respected Democratic governor of a southern state. Somewhat moderate. No skeletons in his closet (that we know of).

              Would probably only run if Biden doesn't.

              Here's one of his 30 second ads for the 2020 campaign for Governor.



              Mid-60s rugged white guy. Well, compared to Trump and Biden, Cooper's a relative youngster. Pleasant calming voice in the ad.

              Looks like a film president. LOL.

              Comment


                #8
                I have no idea what's going to end up happening with the next $hit $how we call our presidential election process, and my only hope is we don't end up with another geezer (which I define as anyone old enough to draw social security/pension). It's also going to be very interesting to see if someone with deep pockets runs as a third party candidate to shake things up.

                The Rs I know seem to have given up on 45, and pretty much everyone I know wants 46 to pull a LBJ and let the country move on. Not sure what we're moving on to though...

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by pianozach View Post

                  Hmmm. Well, okay, a low-key, low-profile, but highly respected Democratic governor of a southern state. Somewhat moderate. No skeletons in his closet (that we know of).

                  Would probably only run if Biden doesn't.

                  Here's one of his 30 second ads for the 2020 campaign for Governor.



                  Mid-60s rugged white guy. Well, compared to Trump and Biden, Cooper's a relative youngster. Pleasant calming voice in the ad.

                  Looks like a film president. LOL.
                  Cooper also won North Carolina statewide in both 2016 and 2020 while Trump won the state’s Electoral votes. If he could flip NC then that would make for some pretty challenging EC math on the GOP side.
                  Last edited by Frumious B; 07-27-2022, 02:44 PM.
                  “Well ain’t life grand when you finally hit it?”-David Lee Roth

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Most Republicans I've talked to still think Trump is great and the election was stolen.

                    Originally posted by kkleinschmidt View Post
                    I have no idea what's going to end up happening with the next $hit $how we call our presidential election process, and my only hope is we don't end up with another geezer (which I define as anyone old enough to draw social security/pension). It's also going to be very interesting to see if someone with deep pockets runs as a third party candidate to shake things up.

                    The Rs I know seem to have given up on 45, and pretty much everyone I know wants 46 to pull a LBJ and let the country move on. Not sure what we're moving on to though...

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by hammerhead View Post
                      Most Republicans I've talked to still think Trump is great and the election was stolen.


                      The MAGA "movement" has moved on from Trump. He is no longer in control of it.

                      He's even getting booed at his own rallies. By his fans.

                      Part of that is his insistence of taking credit for the COVID vaccine, which he recommends, but which his fans hate. No one in the MAGA movement is in the mood to congratulate Trump for "developing" the COVID vaccine.

                      DeSantis seems to be the new MAGA flag-bearer. And he's a firm anti-vaxxer, so people seem to like HIM more than they like Trump.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by pianozach View Post
                        "Crime Surging"? Crime was surging the same as always during the Trump presidency ...
                        Crime certainly surged to unprecedented (un-presidented?) levels in the executive branch alone during Trump. Never seen anything like it, and that's taking into account your 37th (Nixon), etc.



                        Grifters gotta grift ...

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Speaking of third parties...

                          https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exc...ty-2022-07-27/

                          We'll see how much traction they get. It's always tough for new parties to break through but these folks might have enough cash to make that happen. There is definitely a vacuum in the political middle of our country. Time will tell!

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Tulsi Gabbard is a common sense pragmatic patriot. She doesn't pander to the far left or far right. Especially the Hillary machine or the Trump MAGA squad. But it seems we have more extremists on both sides now, and an intelligent common sense candidate like her could never get elected. Yet Kamala is our VP. Pretty sad and incompetent, in my opinion.... A disgrace. A divided country.... Unless Michelle Obama or Gavin unites everyone with that smile and the current failing policies....

                            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mm6klb1jtk

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Somis Sound View Post
                              Tulsi Gabbard is a common sense pragmatic patriot.
                              She's a Russian puppet.
                              "A lot of the heavier conversations I was having with Chris toward the end were about his desire for this thing to go forward. He kept reiterating that to me. [...] He kept telling me, 'No matter what happens, Yes needs to continue moving forward and make great music. So promise me that that's something you want to do.'. And I have to keep making music. It's just what I do. [...] I'm a fan of the band and I want to see it thrive and that means new music." -Billy Sherwood

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